Sunday, May 20, 2012

Does Windows Phone Stand A Chance?

I must say, I am pretty impressed by the Windows Phone operating system. Unlike the Google Android which is, let’s face it, a poor copy of the the Apple iOS, Microsoft created a truly original user experience. The notion of having the same OS that spans the desktop, laptop, tablet, and the smartphone is a very compelling idea. Even Apple didn’t quite make that happen as their Mac OS is still distinct from  iOS.

I have also been impressed by some of the strategic moves Microsoft has been making with their Windows Phone. The partnership with Nokia is a strong endorsement - no matter how long and painful Nokia’s recovery might be. Microsoft also recruited many other vendors including Samsung, LG, HTC, Dell, and others.

Since Google acquired Motorola, there is more and more doubt about Google’s innocence when it gets down to the openness of the Android operating system. That fact alone makes the Windows Phone operating system a rather compelling alternative for the hardware vendors. While none of them have publicly switched their allegiances yet, I’m sure they all are talking to Microsoft.

Also, the recently announced deal with Barnes & Noble and their Nook ebook reader could be a major coup for Microsoft. Sure, Nook runs on Android today but I would bet many chips that the next release will run the Windows Phone OS. Not a bad move for Microsoft if you ask me!

With all of these strategic moves going in Microsoft’s favor, it is surprising that the Windows Phone market share continues sliding down. According to the latest ComScore market share report, Windows Phone has merely 3.9% of the US market - compared with 4.7% three months ago. The trend has been heading south over the last 18 months and frankly, any player in the single digits is questionable...

So what should Microsoft do to reverse this trend? Well, releasing a truly differentiated and innovative operating system is a good start. Windows 8 with all its bells and whistles and particularly with the Metro-style user interface is very promising. The Metro-style apps that Microsoft is going to release next look awesome. But one thing is still missing...

A mobile operating system is supposed to be a platform. And a platform requires applications. This is where Microsoft is not doing so well. When I try to find my favorite iPhone apps on the Windows Phone, I am striking out more often than not. Yet Microsoft understands how to cater to developers. Their tools and developer programs are second to none in the software industry. But there is more to that.

Microsoft should be actively recruiting developers to port their apps to Windows Phone. That is not a slam dunk for most developers as Windows Phone is currently their number 4 platform of choice after Apple, Google and RIM. Yeah sure, RIM has some problems but the BlackBerry OS still has more than double the market share than Windows Phone. Today, building an app for Windows OS is a major gamble with uncertain payoff.

This is where Microsoft could and should use its market power. Instead of billboards, Microsoft could be paying a few thousand dollars to the developers of the key apps to port their apps to Windows Phone. Microsoft should just go aggressively after all these developers and entice them to make it happen.

Particularly in the enterprise market , Microsoft should aggresively solicit the vendors’ support. Right now, Windows Phone OS is the number 4 priority on the list for any enterprise software vendor - after Apple, Google, and RIM. Number 4 rarely makes it into a released product. Everybody’s budget is tight and the money is barely enough for priorities 1 and 2...

Developing apps for a platform that has 3.9% market share with a declining trend is a tough business case to make. This is the top problem Microsoft has to focus on to make Windows Phone a success and without addressing this issue, the platform will likely fail.

1 comment:

  1. Good article, again apps on the platform really do matter, and if an app is missing most people wont think twice about that OS...

    The deal with Barnes & Noble is good, but there is no way Windows Phone will run on anything other than a phone. Unlike Android and iOS, Windows 8 is one OS across all devices, windows phone 8 has a few tweaks to make it work on the phone, but essentially its still Windows 8. Its different to iOS which is a phone OS to run on a tablet, same with Android. Here MS have developed one OS, so Windows Phone 8 is specifically for the phone only, tablets will get the full beans OS. That means the Barnes & Noble deal will probably lead to a Windows 8 (metro only version which is Windows RT) reader.

    With the one OS approach, Microsoft I guess is trying to leverage its vast number of developers across all devices. If I dev a Windows 8 app for the desktop (which everyone will do), it will automatically run on a tablet, no changes needed, and with a few changes, can run on a mobile. That makes life very easy for developers, and you no longer pick to explicitly dev apps for the Windows Phone ecosystem, rather you just dev for Windows...Thats an approach that will ensure the app store on Windows Phone grows massively and very quickly...Keeping in mind that it will be one app store across desktop, tablet and phone all sharing apps...

    I will not be surprised to see the Microsoft Marketplace surpass the iOS and Android counterparts in a relatively short time period and there will be no need to offer a money incentive to developers to do that, the incentives will be there already...

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